Drug Manufacturers - General Industry Report
April 2021
Exploratory Data Analysis
Distribution of the Response
Correlation between Covariates and Response
| Avg Pct Change | Sd Pct Change | Avg Vol | Pe Ratio | Price to Sales Ratio | Price to Book Ratio | Price to Fcf Ratio | Debt to Equity Ratio | Pays Dividend | Dividend Yield | Response | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| min | -1.2% | 0.4% | 312000 | 0.0 | 0.95 | -10.30 | 0.00 | -6.150 | 0.000 | 0% | -0.386 |
| first_quart | -0.1% | 0.8% | 2360000 | 7.9 | 1.72 | 0.00 | 7.17 | 0.765 | 1.000 | 1.5% | 0.199 |
| median | 0% | 1.1% | 5230000 | 12.3 | 2.65 | 2.17 | 10.50 | 1.020 | 1.000 | 3.3% | 0.460 |
| mean | 0% | 1.2% | 9370000 | 17.1 | 3.76 | 2.83 | 13.30 | 1.430 | 0.777 | 3.5% | 0.518 |
| third_quart | 0.1% | 1.4% | 11600000 | 18.9 | 3.97 | 3.26 | 15.50 | 1.500 | 1.000 | 4.7% | 0.748 |
| max | 0.7% | 4.8% | 73900000 | 1130.0 | 96.00 | 52.30 | 181.00 | 18.400 | 1.000 | 13.2% | 2.070 |
Model Tuning
Random Forest Models
Gradient Boosted Models
Final Models
Random Forest Model
Model Info and Metrics
- min_n: 1, mtry: 10
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.1274
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2416
Gradient Boosted Model
Model Info and Metrics
- learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 5, tree_depth: 7
- Mean Absolute Error: 0.0114
- Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0169
Future Predictions
| Company | Quarter | Price | RF Prediction | GB Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIIB | 2020 Q4 | $259.08 | 190.36% | 250.82% |
| HCM | 2020 Q4 | $30.74 | 162.73% | 115.76% |
| SNY | 2020 Q3 | $51.48 | 106.03% | 69.86% |
| GWPH | 2020 Q4 | $112.03 | 83.91% | 140.26% |
| GRFS | 2020 Q3 | $17.66 | 77.64% | 55.37% |
| HZNP | 2020 Q4 | $74.33 | 71.87% | 86.61% |
| GILD | 2020 Q4 | $60.34 | 40.65% | 27.05% |
| BMY | 2020 Q4 | $61.49 | 36.29% | 16.81% |
| ABBV | 2020 Q4 | $96.1 | 33.6% | 30.14% |
| NVO | 2020 Q4 | $69.12 | 33.11% | 23.45% |
| LLY | 2020 Q4 | $149.31 | 28.79% | 47.32% |
| MRK | 2020 Q4 | $80.15 | 27.77% | 19.56% |
| AMGN | 2020 Q4 | $230.56 | 24.19% | 28.82% |
| NVS | 2020 Q4 | $87.38 | 22.36% | 31.94% |
| AZN | 2020 Q4 | $52.96 | 17.07% | 22.25% |
| PFE | 2020 Q4 | $36.68 | 16.8% | 6.9% |
| JNJ | 2020 Q4 | $147.57 | 9.06% | 9.17% |
| GSK | 2020 Q3 | $40.08 | -0.86% | -10.37% |
