Drug Manufacturers - General Industry Report

April 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -1.2% 0.4% 312000 0.0 0.95 -10.30 0.00 -6.150 0.000 0% -0.386
first_quart -0.1% 0.8% 2360000 7.9 1.72 0.00 7.17 0.765 1.000 1.5% 0.199
median 0% 1.1% 5230000 12.3 2.65 2.17 10.50 1.020 1.000 3.3% 0.460
mean 0% 1.2% 9370000 17.1 3.76 2.83 13.30 1.430 0.777 3.5% 0.518
third_quart 0.1% 1.4% 11600000 18.9 3.97 3.26 15.50 1.500 1.000 4.7% 0.748
max 0.7% 4.8% 73900000 1130.0 96.00 52.30 181.00 18.400 1.000 13.2% 2.070



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 1, mtry: 10
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.1274
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.2416


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 5, tree_depth: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0114
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.0169




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
BIIB 2020 Q4 $259.08 190.36% 250.82%
HCM 2020 Q4 $30.74 162.73% 115.76%
SNY 2020 Q3 $51.48 106.03% 69.86%
GWPH 2020 Q4 $112.03 83.91% 140.26%
GRFS 2020 Q3 $17.66 77.64% 55.37%
HZNP 2020 Q4 $74.33 71.87% 86.61%
GILD 2020 Q4 $60.34 40.65% 27.05%
BMY 2020 Q4 $61.49 36.29% 16.81%
ABBV 2020 Q4 $96.1 33.6% 30.14%
NVO 2020 Q4 $69.12 33.11% 23.45%
LLY 2020 Q4 $149.31 28.79% 47.32%
MRK 2020 Q4 $80.15 27.77% 19.56%
AMGN 2020 Q4 $230.56 24.19% 28.82%
NVS 2020 Q4 $87.38 22.36% 31.94%
AZN 2020 Q4 $52.96 17.07% 22.25%
PFE 2020 Q4 $36.68 16.8% 6.9%
JNJ 2020 Q4 $147.57 9.06% 9.17%
GSK 2020 Q3 $40.08 -0.86% -10.37%